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Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)·Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2026: Net sales rose 8.1% to $426.9M, comps +5.8% (U.S. +7.1%, Canada +3.9%), but results missed S&P Global consensus: revenue $462.4M* and EPS $0.19* vs adjusted EPS $0.14 and GAAP EPS $(0.09); adjusted EBITDA $70.0M vs $76.5M* .
  • Guidance: Net income slashed to $17–$21M (from $47–$58M) on a $32.6M debt extinguishment loss; adjusted EPS raised at the low end and narrowed ($0.44–$0.46) with adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $252–$257M; capex cut to $105–$120M .
  • Balance sheet/capital allocation: Refinanced with a $750M term loan and $180M revolver, driving ~$17M annualized interest savings starting Q4; new $50M share repurchase authorization .
  • Catalyst framing: The revenue/EPS/EBITDA misses and lower GAAP net income guide are near-term negatives; offsetting positives include U.S. demand strength, capex trim, interest savings, and buyback authorization that support medium-term margin and FCF recovery .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • U.S. strength: Net sales +10.5% with comps +7.1%, driven by both transactions and basket; management highlighted younger and higher-income cohorts and secular thrift adoption .
    • Store growth and unit economics: 10 openings in Q3 (364 stores total), new stores performing to expectations; expectation for profit inflection to resume in Q4 .
    • Structural improvement: Debt refinance extends maturities and reduces interest expense by ~$17M annualized from Q4; board authorized new $50M buyback .
    • Quote: “U.S. sales grew at a double-digit pace… we successfully opened 10 new stores, putting us on track for a return to year-over-year profit growth beginning in the fourth quarter.” — CEO Mark Walsh .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Canada headwinds and processing balance: Macro pressure limited upside; production calibration weighed on gross margins; SG&A included ~$4M impairment for 6 store closures, including three 2 Peaches conversions .
    • Profitability compression: GAAP net loss $(14.0)M (net margin −3.3%) due to $32.6M debt extinguishment; adjusted EBITDA margin 16.4% vs 19.1% prior year .
    • Estimate misses: Actual revenue $426.9M vs $462.4M*; adjusted EPS $0.14 vs $0.19*; adjusted EBITDA $70.0M vs $76.5M* .
    • Analyst concern: Q&A focused on Canada margin pressure durability and cadence to margin recovery; management guided conservative Q4 Canada comps (roughly flat) .

Financial Results

Q3 2026 headline results and prior two quarters (oldest → newest). “Q3 2026” refers to the thirteen weeks ended September 27, 2025 (company’s fiscal calendar).

MetricQ1 (Mar 29, 2025)Q2 (Jun 28, 2025)Q3 2026 (Sep 27, 2025)
Net Sales ($M)$370.145 $417.208 $426.935
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.03) $0.12 $(0.09)
Net Income (Loss) Margin (%)(1.3)% 4.5% (3.3)%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$42.782 $68.786 $69.983
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)11.6% 16.5% 16.4%
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.02 $0.14 $0.14

Consensus comparison for Q3 2026:

  • Revenue Consensus Mean: $462.36M*; actual $426.94M (miss) .
  • EPS (Normalized) Consensus Mean: $0.19*; adjusted EPS $0.14 (miss) .
  • EBITDA Consensus Mean: $76.54M*; adjusted EBITDA $69.98M (miss) .

Segment breakdown (Q3 2026 vs prior year):

SegmentQ3 2026 Net Sales ($000)Q3 2025 Net Sales ($000)YoY %Q3 2026 Segment Profit ($000)Q3 2025 Segment Profit ($000)
U.S. Retail234,712 212,470 10.5% 47,956 44,792
Canada Retail159,608 151,886 5.1% 45,336 44,980
Other (AU + Wholesale)32,615 30,441 7.1% 8,650 9,257
Total426,935 394,797 8.1% ——

KPIs (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025):

KPIQ3 2026Q3 2025
Pounds Processed (mm lbs)282 261
On-site Donations + GreenDrop (% of pounds)80.7% 79.8%
Sales Yield ($/lb, currency-neutral)$1.48 $1.45
Cost of Merchandise per lb$0.67 $0.65

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 release)Current Guidance (Q3 release)Change
Net SalesFY 2025$1.67B–$1.69B $1.67B–$1.68B Narrowed (lower high end)
Comparable Store Sales (ex-53rd week)FY 20253.0%–4.5% 4.0%–4.5% Raised low end
GAAP Net Income (Diluted EPS)FY 2025$47M–$58M ($0.29–$0.36) $17M–$21M ($0.10–$0.13) Lowered (refinance charge)
Adjusted Net Income (Adj EPS)FY 2025$67M–$78M ($0.41–$0.48) $71M–$75M ($0.44–$0.46) Raised low end, narrowed
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$252M–$267M $252M–$257M Lowered high end
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$125M–$140M $105M–$120M Lowered
New Store OpeningsFY 202525 25 Maintained

Management also quantified interest expense outlook post-refi: ~$14M in Q4 and ~$52M in FY 2026, with ~$17M annualized savings starting Q4 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 and Q2)Current Period (Q3 2026)Trend
Automation/TechnologyQ2: Automated book processing expanded to supply ~50% of fleet; continued innovation focus . Q1: no notable tech mention in release.Continued progress in centralized processing centers and automated book systems; more 2026 opportunities expected .Expanding automation; incremental efficiency opportunity into 2026.
Supply Chain/ProcessingQ1 OSD mix 74.0% ; Q2 OSD ~79% with elevated Canada processing to feed demand .OSD/GreenDrop 80.7%; Canada rebalanced processing to match demand after over-indexing, still conservative for Q4 .Improving supply quality; better equilibrium in Canada.
Tariffs/MacroQ2: Macro volatility in Canada; tariff/trade uncertainty cited .No direct tariff exposure; Canada macro still tough (elevated unemployment in Ontario auto regions) .U.S. resilient; Canada pressured.
Pricing/Value GapQ2: 40–70% price gap to discount retail, potential share gains .Maintains 40–70% price gap; optionality for strategic price moves as new apparel/footwear prices rise .Favorable competitive position; optionality intact.
Regional TrendsQ2: U.S. strength; Canada sequentially improving .U.S. comps +7.1%; Canada comps +3.9% with flat-ish Q4 guide .U.S. leading; Canada stabilizing.
Real Estate/Store GrowthQ2: 25 openings in 2025; Two Peaches accelerated conversions as SE beachhead .10 openings in Q3; 2026 entries into NC/TN; closing 3 underperforming Two Peaches sites (EBITDA accretive in 2026) .U.S.-centric pipeline; quality focus.

Management Commentary

  • Strategic positioning: “Powerful results… reinforce our enthusiasm for the long-term growth opportunity in the U.S.” and “on track for a return to year-over-year profit growth beginning in the fourth quarter.” — CEO Mark Walsh .
  • Canada approach: “We actively worked to calibrate production to meet demand… Exiting the quarter, Canadian COMPS leveled off at the lower end of our expected range” — CEO Mark Walsh .
  • Financial discipline: “We expect interest expense savings of approximately $17 million on an annualized basis… estimated interest expense of $14 million for the fourth quarter and $52 million for fiscal 2026” — CFO Michael Maher .
  • Pricing/competitive stance: “We try to get between 40% and 70%… value that brings [customers] back… if the gap widens… gives us advantageous optionality” — CEO Mark Walsh .

Q&A Highlights

  • Canada margin mechanics: Over-processing to feed demand weighed margins; now at “equilibrium,” with Q4 Canada comps planned roughly flat and conservative margin assumptions .
  • Southeast expansion: Learnings from 2 Peaches led to closing 3 underperforming conversions (accretive in 2026); organic entries into TN/NC in 2026 with robust pipeline .
  • Margin path 2026: Long-term high-teens EBITDA margin algorithm intact; 2025 is trough; modest improvement expected in 2026 as new stores mature .
  • Pricing optionality: With rising new apparel/footwear prices, SVV can either take share or consider modest strategic pricing while preserving 40–70% value gap .
  • Capex envelope: Expect capex roughly high-single-digit % of revenue while in growth mode, focused on stores and enablers (off-site processing, tech) .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2026 S&P Global Wall Street consensus (9 ests): Revenue $462.36M*, Normalized EPS $0.19*, EBITDA $76.54M*; Primary EPS # of Estimates: 9*, Revenue # of Estimates: 9*.
  • Actual results vs consensus: Revenue $426.94M (miss), Adjusted EPS $0.14 (miss), Adjusted EBITDA $69.98M (miss) .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term: Headline misses on revenue/EPS/EBITDA and a sharply lower GAAP net income guide (due to refinance charge) are likely sentiment headwinds; watch Q4 execution on Canadian processing equilibrium and comps .
  • Medium-term: Structural positives—$17M annualized interest savings, capex reduction, and $50M buyback—support EPS and FCF recovery as the large 2024–2025 store cohorts mature .
  • U.S. remains the growth engine: Sustained mid-single-digit comps potential, expanding younger/affluent cohorts, and favorable price gaps vs discount retail drive share gains .
  • Canada stabilization is the swing factor: Conservative planning (flat Q4 comps) tempers risk; proof points will be margin normalization as production stays aligned with demand .
  • 2026 setup: Management still sees 2025 as EBITDA margin trough with modest improvement in 2026; incremental efficiency from automation/processing initiatives is a catalyst .
  • Store growth discipline: U.S.-centric pipeline, selective closures (2 Peaches) and targeted new market entries (TN/NC) should lift returns while protecting margin trajectory .

Notes and sources:

  • Q3 2026 earnings press release and exhibits: net sales, comps, P&L, segment data, KPIs, guidance, buyback, refinancing .
  • Q3 2026 earnings call transcript: U.S./Canada drivers, interest savings, guidance cadence, pricing, automation, real estate, Q&A themes .
  • Prior quarters (trend): Q2 FY2025 press release (sales, margins, guidance raise) ; Q1 FY2025 press release (sales, margins, guidance reaffirm) .
  • Consensus data: S&P Global estimates for revenue, EPS (normalized), EBITDA, and number of estimates* (Values retrieved from S&P Global).